David Murrin

David Murrin is a renowned financial markets and geopolitical forecaster, advisor, author and expert on global future trends. For over two decades, he has been recognised internationally for his ability to identify and interpret cyclical patterns in history to predict major economic, political and social shifts. His pioneering five-stage model of empire and human behaviour has provided a powerful framework for understanding how societies evolve, make decisions and respond to change. Drawing on insights from both anthropology and economics, David helps leaders, investors and policymakers anticipate risk and harness opportunity in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.

David’s journey towards understanding collective human behaviour began far from the trading floor. Early in his career, he led geological expeditions through the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific Islands, studying the region’s mineral composition. Working closely with local tribes, he observed patterns of group dynamics and decision-making that sparked his lifelong fascination with the underlying drivers of human behaviour. When he later joined JP Morgan, he recognised the same collective behavioural patterns at play in modern financial markets, inspiring his future work in forecasting and pattern recognition.

In 1997, David co-founded Emergent Asset Management, a leading alternative investment firm, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer. Over the years, he and his team have successfully applied his behavioural and cyclical models to anticipate key geopolitical and market developments. In 2008, he co-founded Emergent’s African Land Fund, designed to align investment with long-term, sustainable growth. Since 2011, he has directed the company’s strategy, combining deep geopolitical insight with practical financial analysis to guide clients through periods of uncertainty and transformation.

An accomplished author and commentator, David has written extensively on history, markets and global power dynamics, including analyses of the long-term impact of events such as the First World War and 9/11. His five-phase model has been widely adopted as a lens through which to assess organisational and societal evolution, from early growth to decline and renewal. As a Global Fellow of PS21, he contributes to research on the defining challenges of the 21st century. Through his books, advisory work and keynote speaking, David empowers audiences to see beyond immediate trends and prepare intelligently for the world ahead.